Coyote Buttes in May

Nanda

Nanda

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Jun 30, 2013
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So my friends are looking to visit down to Coyote Buttes and applied permit online and I am looking to tag along. How would temp be like in May, late may? Would it already be too hot(100F or so in that time of year)? Thanks.
 
Really hot but totally doable. Just be smart and hike early and pack lots of water, sun hats, sun screen, etc.

The chances are extraordinarily low they will actually get a permit though, assuming you're trying for Coyote Buttes North. I wrote up a paper on the subject a few years ago with data from the BLM and found that during peak months like May, your chances of winning a permit are around 3% at best. My data was limited so I couldn't factor in group size complications so it is likely worse than that and even worse as the years go by.
 
Nick said:
Really hot but totally doable. Just be smart and hike early and pack lots of water, sun hats, sun screen, etc.

The chances are extraordinarily low they will actually get a permit though, assuming you're trying for Coyote Buttes North. I wrote up a paper on the subject a few years ago with data from the BLM and found that during peak months like May, your chances of winning a permit are around 3% at best. My data was limited so I couldn't factor in group size complications so it is likely worse than that and even worse as the years go by.
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That's not good, chances that is. Anyways, we each applied separately, hopefully that will do the trick :)
 
Nanda said:
That's not good, chances that is. Anyways, we each applied separately, hopefully that will do the trick :)
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Which you're not supposed to do...

Edit: the BLM seems somewhat permissive of multiple applications at the Wave, though I'd personally consider it bad form. I know some other permit lotteries will disqualify you for multiple entries.
 
And honestly, in May, you're still pretty much guaranteed not to win even if you could enter a dozen times. I tried like 14 times before I finally won for a December permit. Not to dissuade from trying of course, just plan on not getting it. Better chances in Vegas.
 
Haha! 3 for 3!? I dare say you are an anomaly. Obviously it depends on how many in your group and whether you were shooting for weekdays vs. weekends, but that is not at all par for the course. Here is the data for 2010:

Screen Shot 2014-01-05 at 7.37.36 PM.png

Only 10 permits available online per day so that means for May 2010, 4,355 people were fighting for 310 spots with an average group size of 3 people per group. Not factoring in higher demand days of the week, that equates to 46.7 groups per day trying for basically 3.3 available slots per day, based on that average group size (people/applications). That was 2010.

Today is January 5th so there are still about 25 days this month to put in applications and this is how many have applied so far:

Screen Shot 2014-01-05 at 7.44.38 PM.png

That is a total of 6,835 people who have applied in the first FIVE DAYS of the month! WOW! Already way more than the number of applicants for the entire same month in 2010. If it were to keep up at that rate there would end up being something like 40,000 people applying to 310 online lottery spots. Like I said, better chances in Vegas. ;)
 
I randomly picked a day each time. I wasn't planning to go and just wanted to see what will happen.
So I ended up with my permit and sure I did go. Last month it was a single permit for me, the other two times a permit for two.
April to September is just insane. I was surprised I won a June permit the first time I applied.

It's definitely easier to win in Vegas than to get a permit.
 
ashergrey said:
Which you're not supposed to do...

Edit: the BLM seems somewhat permissive of multiple applications at the Wave, though I'd personally consider it bad form. I know some other permit lotteries will disqualify you for multiple entries.
Click to expand...

Oh well, we already applied separately(twice for group of 3). I can see why BLM would passively accept this, more money for them.
Anyway my friends are more keen since they are leaving Utah soon, I can always try my luck later.
 
I certainly understand the impulse to make multiple entries... just remember that if you draw more than one date during that month there are restrictions on when you may return.
 
Just a random note about unpredictability... once in May at the Wave it hailed on me enough to cover the ground. Late May even!

Good luck with the lottery and the weather. What are the chances of lucking out with both?!

- JG
 
One of those places I'd like to go but I'm not going to play the game........ other places to see....
 
Nanda said:
Oh well, we already applied separately(twice for group of 3). I can see why BLM would passively accept this, more money for them.
Anyway my friends are more keen since they are leaving Utah soon, I can always try my luck later.
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I believe the BLM website says it will nullify your permit if it's discovered that multiple entries for the same party were entered.

BTW, I'm 3 for 6 for CBN permits. When I applied for August, November, and February I got a permit. I didn't get one when I applied for March, May, and November.
 
Bob said:
One of those places I'd like to go but I'm not going to play the game........ other places to see....
Click to expand...


I'm in the same boat. Plus I suck at getting paperwork and permits and the stars aligned for my trips.
 
I'm guessing most groups have each individual applying. Since you don't have to post the names of your group on the application why wouldn't you to increase your chances?
 
Just for entertainment, I thought I'd post the total # of people so far who have applied for a Wave permit for May. Today is January 15th so we still have half the month open to applications.

310 advance permits are available.

So far this month 4,475 request have been put in with a total of 13,958 people. Average group size = 3.1 people.

Not factoring in day of week or group size, as of today the chance of winning a permit in May is about 2.2%.

I find this interesting so I'm going to try to grab the data at the end of the month and post it here as well.
 
My first time I went I looked at the calendar and there were some days open and up for grabs, so I took one. No lotto, and no waiting! The second time they said we got picked but then there was a glitch in there system and it picked 3 times to many people, however we were still able to go. I just got permits in the mail the other day for next month for the day I picked. I guess from now on I will have bad luck and need to plan to go somewhere else, which I need to do anyway.
 
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